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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.